Briefs

Gartner: mobile phone sales will exceed one billion in 2009

Gartner has predicted that the milestone of one billion mobile phones sold per year will be reached in 2009. This study included detailed forecasts of sales in 62 countries. It was compiled by Gartner’s team of over 20 mobile and wireless analysts based in 12 countries worldwide.

The research also revealed that Asia-Pacific accounts for most sales—one in every four mobile phones sold this year; in 2009, this will increase to one in three. China and India alone will account for nearly 200 million units in 2007, with the Indian market surpassing China in 2009 to reach 139 million units.

According to Gartner, total mobile phones sold in 2004 was about 21 million in India and is estimated to be 34 million in 2005. In comparison, China clocked in 68 million units in 2004 and is estimated to grow to 85 million in 2005.

“A conducive regulatory environment, affordable services and increased geographic penetration of networks will drive mobile penetration in India. An important enabler will be the initiative in bringing down handset costs to lower the initial barrier to entry,” says Kobita Desai, Principal Analyst, Telecom, Asia-Pacific, Gartner.

According to Ben Wood, Research Vice-president for Mobile Terminals at Gartner, “Mobile phones could be the most common consumer electronic devices on the planet.” Gartner estimates that there will be 2.6 billion mobile phones in use by 2009-end.

“The sales volume cannot be attributed to one region in particular. It’s a truly global phenomenon,” says Carolina Milanesi, Principal Analyst at Gartner for Mobile Terminals. “In mature markets such as Europe and North America, subscribers are still buying replacement phones. In emerging markets like Brazil and India, new customers are signing up for mobile services at an even faster rate.”

North Americans are buying the latest models, but the bigger story is in Latin America. Notes Hugues De La Vergne, Gartner’s Principal Analyst for Mobile Terminals in the Americas, “Sales nearly doubled in 2004 within Latin America, and they will reach 100 million mobile phones a year by 2009. Brazil is the powerhouse of the region, accounting for more than a third of sales this year.”

Deeper analysis of the forecast shows that smart phones are the fastest-growing category. “Smart phone sales broke all records in the first quarter of 2005 and we expect them to double year on year in 2006,” remarks Roberta Cozza, Principal Analyst at Gartner.

Despite spectacular growth on all fronts, not everything is rosy. Wood cautions, “Sales numbers are impressive, but big names in this industry will have to deliver value as well as volume. We expect that the average wholesale price of a mobile phone will decline from $174 in 2004 to $161 in 2009. At the same time, phones will keep getting more complex and become ever-more packed with features. Only the sharpest players will survive.”