The coming age of mobile computing

Sales of notebooks and handhelds are booming. The era of mobile computing has dawned, says Vinutha V

A combination of affordable mobile computing products, the cellular explosion in India and wireless LAN have resulted in the notebook market coming of age. The deregulation of 802.11b spectrum was a shot in the arm for this segment that had played second fiddle to the PC market in the past. Notebooks in conjunction with WLAN have been a compelling proposition for educational institutions and corporations. Notebook shipments in 2004 leapfrogged 127 percent year-on-year. 1,90,850 units were shipped, vis-a-vis 83,724 in 2003.

Sanjit Sinha, Senior Research Manager, Hardware Research, IDC India says, "The affordability factor increased when the price of an entry-level notebook came down drastically. In addition, the awareness and demand for features that were not available on desktop PCs ensured that first time users opted for notebooks in the mid-segment too."

Meanwhile, the Smart Handheld Devices (SHD) market grew even faster. Shipments of SHDs surged by a staggering 147 percent in 2004. According to IDC, 15,814 pen-based devices, 47,970 data-centric SHDs and 69,326 voice-centric ones were sold in 2004.

On a growth trajectory

IDC states that notebook shipments are growing from a large base and therefore the growth rate will not be high in percentage terms. That said, IDC expects total notebook sales to increase by 1,30,000 units in 2005 to reach a total of 3,20,000 units. Considering that the increase in notebook shipments will be greater than the total sales in 2003 of 83,724 and you realise the quantum leap taking place.

Many features that are currently available on high-end notebooks such as longer battery life and wide screen technology will soon be offered on mid-segment notebooks. As a result, sales of mid-segment notebooks are expected to get a boost. The onset of the zero-duty regime in April 2005 will make notebooks more affordable.

As per IDC India, over the next five years, pen-based devices will grow at a CAGR of 47 percent, data-centric SHDs at 63 percent and voice-centric at 82 percent. "The applications of data-centric and voice-centric devices are wide and are consumer driven. Most repeat buyers of mobile phones are going for these two segments," says Sanjit Sinha of IDC India.

The awareness of the features in mid-level notebooks (wireless technology etc.) has led many first time buyers to opt for them rather than buying desktop PCs. The existence of sub-Rs 40,000 notebooks broadened the appeal of notebooks.

Centrino’s king

IDC India says that the Centrino went from strength to strength with shipments of notebooks built using this platform rising from 50 percent of notebook sales in Q1 2004 to 70 percent by Q4, 2004. AMD is launching Turion, a new 64-bit mobile processor, which analysts say is pitted against the Centrino. Turion is expected to hit the Indian market as early as AMJ quarter of 2005. Meanwhile, demand for wireless connectivity propelled sales of Centrino-based notebooks. Market players estimate that a 53.3 percent of the notebooks shipped in 2004 were Centrino-based. The share of Centrino in the overall notebook pie is expected to go up in 2005.

Dinesh Pai, General Manager, Dell Computer India says, "Increasing awareness combined with the availability of wireless hot-spots in educational institutions, offices and hotels will create a favourable environment for Centrino-based notebooks." Notebook vendors echo the fact that the dual advantages of battery life and wireless connectivity will result in the continued growth of sales of Centrino-based notebooks in 2005. Sanjeev Menon of IBM says, "Wireless is inevitable, Centrino notebooks were in demand in 2004. The weight of the notebook was a major concern."

It was wireless and Bluetooth connectivity that attracted consumers to notebooks. All day computing notebooks with extended battery life of up to 10 to 11 hours are also in great demand Rajiev Grover country category manager-consumer portables HP India	The trading community and corporate users are opting for certain high-end phones due to the availability of a mobile VPN Sanjay Behl Head-marketing (Customer & Market operations), Nokia India	The demand for PDAs will come from e-governance projects and corporates. Mark Mathias president, Encore Software

Security concerns

The future is unwired. However, wireless computing results in notebooks becoming vulnerable to viruses and data loss in new ways which is resulting in data security concerns coming to the fore. Data access is going to be controlled via biometrics and embedded security. Says Sanjeev Menon, Brand Manager-Mobile Computing, Personal Computing Division, IBM India, "There will be notebooks offering an integrated option, which allows data access based upon the user's fingerprint. Embedded security will comprise software that locks the data using a 256-bit chip."

SMBs are the next target S Rajendran, General Manager, Sales and Marketing, Consumer Product Group (CPG), Acer India says, "With the penetration of notebook in India being just 6 percent, there is a huge opportunity in 2005; especially with regard to the SMB community that has started looking at notebooks as a mobile productivity tool."

Last year, enterprises began to deploy wireless LANs. This year, the trend of using notebooks for wireless computing will consolidate. Ultra portables and tablet PCs may take centre stage with high-end consumers.

SHDs are here to stay

Smart handheld devices (SHDs) are being deployed to replace paper-based processes as organisations move their computing activities outdoors. Giving field staff access to data and information at all times results in productivity and profitability. The pen-based devices have been driven by the government and enterprises while data-centric and voice-centric devices are in greater demand with consumers.

High-growth sectors

Pen-based devices were adopted in sectors where data collection, field force automation, education and technical troubleshooting were required on a regular basis. Banking, telecom, FMCG, pharmaceuticals, restaurant billing, inventory control management, vehicle tracking, ore tracking, automation of service centres are some of the sectors and applications that use pen-based devices.

palmOne, one of the top three vendors of pen-based devices offered its units to FMCG and pharmaceutical companies for both field force automation and sales force automation. Allergen India is using palmOne's m500 and m515 models for field force automation. Raghuprasad, Assistant Manager, Information System, Allergen India says, "Our company has to get responses from doctors and chemists regarding our drugs. This data is taken on handheld devices and later uploaded to server. Currently, we are using 124 devices. Since, we are expanding our workforce, we will be deploying an additional 34 units." As handheld devices help collect field data in near real-time, the company can take decisions about its drugs.

Future prospects

Wireless is going to play as important a role in the SHD segment as it does in notebooks. With hotspots being deployed by telcos and ISPs, demand for wireless-enabled SHDs will ensue. "In addition, the computing power of handhelds, the ability to interface with other devices such as barcode scanners and mobile printers and Internet connectivity will drive demand for these devices," says Swami Manohar, Chief Executive Officer of PicoPeta Simputers.

Smartphone sales are up

The voice-centric or smartphone category of SHDs has seen a small boom in the past few months. The industry and the analysts agree that this trend will continue. Last year, there were 51 million mobile subscribers and 45 million fixed line subscribers and about 2 million mobile subscribers are being added every month, according to the Cellular Operators Association of India (COIA).

Out of the total sales of mobile handsets, smartphones account for three percent. While the base will be low vis-a-vis mobile phones, sales of smartphones will increase dramatically says, Percy P Batlivala, General Manager-South West Asia, Personal Communication Sector of Motorola Excellence Centre.

vinutha@expresscomputeronline.com