Issue dated - 17th February 2003

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Budget, Iraq crisis to fuel volatility

Deepak Sahijwala & Sanjay R Bhatia

The markets continued to trade in a lacklustre and range-bound manner ahead of the UN meeting to decide the fate of Iraq. The uncertainty of an attack on Iraq has kept the markets cautious. Institutional activity was at its minimal. Traders and speculators were seen taking speculative positions in PSU and banking stocks on the buy side. FIIs continued to remain net buyers on the bourses, albeit their purchases were limited. In fact, mutual funds were also net buyers during the course of the week.

Technically, the markets recovered after last week’s correction. However, volumes continued to remain moderate due to the uncertainty of war. The BSE Sensex is likely to face resistance at the 3295 level. If it manages to sustain above this level, it is likely to test the 3357 level. On the downside, the 3207 level is an important support level. One thing is certain in the face of the impending Budget and the Iraq crisis: the markets are certainly going to get volatile.

CMC
The stock moved in a range of Rs 54, touching an intra-day low of Rs 476 on January 30 and an intra-day high of Rs 530 on February 4. Selling pressure continued on the CMC stock. It has also failed to find support at the Rs 506 level. If it fails to move above the Rs 506 level, it is likely to test the Rs 425 level.

Digital GlobalSoft
It moved in a range of Rs 146.70, touching an intra-day low of Rs 493.30 on January 30 and intra-day high of Rs 640 on February 3. In fact, it has been able to sustain above the Rs 480 level, which is a positive sign. The news of Alliance mutual fund, which holds large chunks of the Digital Globalsoft stock, not exiting from India, has helped it to recover lost ground. It now faces resistance at the Rs 662 level. On the downside, the Rs 493 level would act as an important support level.

HCL Technologies
The HCL Tech stock has moved in a range of Rs 19.20, touching an intra-day low of Rs 154 on January 30 and an intra-day high of Rs 173.20 on February 4. Though it moved above its resistance level of Rs 168, it failed to sustain above this level and has since fallen back below this level. Now, if it moves above the Rs 173.20 level it is likely to test the Rs 182 level. On the downside, the Rs 140 level could act as support level.

Infosys Technologies
It moved in a range-bound trend fluctuating as much as Rs 266.65, while touching an intra-day low of Rs 4,181.35 on January 30 and an intra-day high of Rs 4,448 on February 4. However, It has managed to bounce back above the Rs 4,266 level, which is a positive sign. The Rs 4,620 level continues to be an important resistance level. It is therefore likely to continue to move in a range-bound trend, till it moves above this level decisively. On the downside, the Rs 4,180 is likely to act as a strong support level.

NIIT
It moved in a range of Rs 12.95, touching an intra-day low of Rs 132.75 on January 31 and an intra-day high of Rs 145.70 on February 4. It has moved in a range-bound trend. It is likely to face resistance at the Rs 147.85. If it moves above this level it is likely to test the Rs 175 level. On the downside, it has a support at the Rs 125.10 level.

Satyam Computers
It moved in a range of Rs 18.10, touching an intra-day low of Rs 215.40 on January 31 and an intra-day high of Rs 233.50 on February 4. It has continued to remain weak, but has managed to stay above the Rs 214 level. On the upside, it faces resistance at the Rs 233.50 level. On the downside, the Rs 214 level is a crucial support level. If it breaks below this level, it is likely to test the Rs 193 level.

View the STRATSTAR FUND WIZARD BUY/SELL REPORT FOR 10/02/2003

Nasdaq
The weakness continues on the Nasdaq. The uncertainty of war with Iraq has kept market sentiment cautious and rangebound. The Nasdaq has fallen below its important support level of 1319, which is a negative sign and if it fails to bounce back above this level it is likely to test the 1272 level. On the upside the 1358 level is an important resistance level.
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