It is too early to tell if the Tablet PC will really take off and become the hit Microsoft and Bill Gates hopes it will be, says Tim Bajarin

In the early 1990s, I had the privilege of working on multiple projects that dealt with pen computing. One of my projects was for Microsoft, which dealt with the potential of a tablet or slate-like computer becoming the future form factor for portable computing.

However, the technology that could make pen computing really work, handwriting recognition software, was weak back then and along with mediocre touch screen digitisers and low powered microprocessors, this first major attempt at pen computing failed.

Dream resurrected
But a decade later, Microsoft has resurrected its dream for pen-based computing, and recently introduced the Tablet PC. This particular vision of the Tablet PC came from Bill Gates himself. I talked to him about his personal views on the Tablet PC when he first started pushing the idea two years ago. He stated then that he believed the use of the pen, or stylus, for entering data and navigating the user interface represented a more natural way to work with information and to browse the Web.

He also pointed out that Microsoft had been working since the early 1990s to advance handwriting technology and a pen-driven user interface, and that it continues to believe a Tablet PC represents the future of personal portable computing.

Will it take off?
Although Microsoft is very bullish on this product, and they have strong support from around 10 hardware vendors and at least 30 software developers, it is too early to tell if the Tablet PC will really take off and become the hit Microsoft and Bill Gates hopes it will be.

I have been using a Tablet PC for about five months now and have come to my own conclusions about the device. The first thing to note about the first generation Tablet PCs is that they come in two distinct form factors and this will be key to their initial success.

Most of the early hardware vendors have created what is known as a pure slate, or tablet design and it is my view that this particular form factor will be of interest to vertical markets and will be used mainly in field force automation projects.

This pure slate design is coming from Fujitsu, NEC, Motion Computing, Viewsonic and Electrovaya.

Applications is key
However, it will be the software applications written specifically for the Tablet PC and aimed at key vertical field force application markets that will determine the ultimate success of any of the slate-based Tablet PCs.

This viewpoint is reinforced by the first generation of software applications that were shown at the Tablet PC launch which focused on delivering solutions for medical, legal, insurance, real estate and engineering management. One particular innovative solution for the insurance industry, from GA Sullivan, instantly marries data entered in forms by the pen to larger claims databases.

Another application for the healthcare market, from Quilogy Software, demonstrates how a Tablet PC can revolutionise hospital administration tasks and transfer critical patient information into medical databases in real time.

The other design is called a convertible and these Tablet PCs look like a traditional clam shell-based laptops but have either detachable keyboards or screens that fold down over the keyboard for use in the tablet or slate mode. Such convertibles are coming from Toshiba, Acer and HP.

These are really designed for a more horizontal market and are aimed at mobile power users who can appreciate the benefits of both a laptop and Tablet PC combo device

Although this design will get the attention of the early adopter, it is hard to tell if they will really take off anytime soon. Again, the key here will be the software that is being developed for mainstream mobile users that not only takes advantage of the pen computing attributes, but also delivers applications that are new and innovative.

Digital ink
One early example of this is the Tablet PC version of Microsoft Journal that can be used as a note taking application.

It uses digital ink, which means that you can write on the Tablet PC in your own handwriting and what you write in the Journal is what you get. It does not convert your writing into text but what you write can be cut and pasted into any document or e-mail that can accept rich text or HTML code, and be sent to anyone via e-mail. You can also ‘lasso’ what you have written and try to convert it to text, but the accuracy rate is less then stellar.

Another good example of a mainstream application comes from Franklin Covey and is called Tablet Planner. It is a great pen-based personal information manager and extension of a digital ink note taking binder. There is one piece of technology that is in all of the hardware offered, whether in slate or convertible formats, and that is the inclusion of WiFi or 802.11b wireless modems. Microsoft and all of the vendors believe that wireless networking is a critical component of the Tablet PC if it is to become successful.

There is potential
My short term view is that the Tablet PC will strictly be a vertical field force platform for its first two years, and I expect many field and sales force applications to be designed or customised for the Tablet PC. This will be highly important to its initial market success.

If Microsoft can get more software developers to see the Tablet PC as a new canvas to create software applications that are innovative, then it just might be the kind of hit Bill Gates and his team is hoping it will become.

Tim Bajarin is president, Creative Strategies, a US-based consulting firm. He can be reached at bajarin@creativestrategies.com.

This article first appeared in Asia Computer Weekly