Issue dated - 14th October 2002

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Will Q2 results trigger a rally?

Deepak Sahijwala & Sanjay R Bhatia

The weakness on the bourses continued as the bear grip on the US and other markets prevailed. And just ahead of Q2 results, traders and speculators were seen unwinding their speculative positions in tech and index heavyweights. FIIs continued to remain net sellers and mutual funds continued to buy, though their purchases were low.

The divestment of PSUs continued to suffer on account of rising opposition within the NDA government. The government’s announcement that it would return the earnest money deposited by bidders for the divestment of BPCL and HPCL did not augur well for PSU stocks.

Technically, the benchmark BSE Sensex continues to struggle below the 3000 level, and this could continue to haunt the markets ahead of the Q2 results. The market is likely to seek support at the 2931 level. If it fails to find support at this level, a further downslide would be seen and the Sensex would then find support only at the 2836 level. The Q2 results could be the possible triggers required for a strong rally, and which might also bring the much-needed FII investments. But any disappointment from these results would see a sell-off on the bourses.

CMC
The CMC stock moved in the Rs 35 range over the week, touching an intra-day high of Rs 537 on September 27 and an intra-day low of Rs 502 on October 1. The stock is struggling above its 200-day moving average and is likely to fall below this level in a few trading days. On the upside, the CMC stock faces resistance at the
Rs 552 level. On the downside, the stock is likely to seek support at Rs 480.

Digital GlobalSoft
The Digital stock continued to move in a narrow range of Rs 40.25 over the week, touching an intra-day high of
Rs 583.80 on September 27 and intra-day low of Rs 543.55 on October 1. On the upside, the Digital stock is likely to face resistance at the Rs 600 level. The stock continues to languish below its 200-day moving average, and the present weakness is likely to continue before it seeks support at the Rs 435 level.

HCL Technologies
The HCL Tech stock moved in a range of Rs 22.70 during the week, touching an intra-day high of Rs 225.90 on September 27 and an intra-day low of Rs 203.20 on October 1. Though the stock was able to move above the Rs 224 level, selling pressure and profit booking has erased gains. The Rs 224 level continues to remain an important barrier for the HCL Tech stock. It is likely to remain range-bound between the Rs 200-226 level. Any fall below the Rs 200 level would see the HCL Tech stock falling further to seek support at the Rs 185 level.

Infosys Technologies
The Infosys stock moved in a range of Rs 79 over the week, touching an intra-day high of
Rs 3,529 on September 26 and an intra-day low of Rs 3,350 on October 1. The stock continues to face selling pressure at higher levels and is likely to move in a range-bound manner for a few trading sessions.

NIIT
The NIIT stock moved in an extremely narrow range of Rs 9.75 over the week, touching an intra-day high of Rs 137.30 on September 27 and an intra-day low of Rs 127.55 on October 1. On the upside, it is likely to face resistance at the Rs 142 level, and on the downside, it is likely to find support at the Rs 111 level.

Satyam Computers
The Satyam stock continued to move in a narrow range of Rs 14.15 during the course of the week, touching an intra-day high of Rs 222.40 on September 27 and an intra-day low of Rs 208.25 on October 1. The downtrend continued in the Satyam stock after it failed to move above the Rs 247 level. Now, Satyam faces resistance at the Rs 223 level, and it is likely to seek support at the Rs 189 level, if it falls below the Rs 200 level.

Wipro
The Wipro stock moved in a narrow range of Rs 68.90 during the week, touching an intra-day high of Rs 1,365 on September 27 and an intra-day low of Rs 1,296.10 on October 1st. On the upside, it faces resistance at the Rs 1,453 level and on the downside it is likely to seek support at the Rs 1,187 level.

View the STRATSTAR FUND WIZARD BUY/SELL REPORT FOR 07/10/2002

Nasdaq
Weakness on the Nasdaq continued ahead of Q3 numbers and also on continued fears of the USA declaring war against Iraq which may delay the recovery in the US economy. Moreover, there is the fear of companies not meeting their Q3 expectations and earnings warning have also seen markets sliding down. If the Q3 results are as per expectations, it will act as the perfect trigger for a strong rally to unfold.

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