Issue dated -08th April 2002

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Q4 results will decide the course of the markets

Deepak Sahijwala & Sanjay R. Bhatia

Sentiment continued to remain lacklustre on the bourses amidst low volumes as FIIs and mutual funds stayed away from the markets ahead of year-end considerations and also due to festive holidays during the course of the week. Traders and speculators also abstained from building large speculative positions ahead of the festive holidays. The vote on the POTO bill on March 26 also added to the nervousness. Except for a few mutual funds who were seen buying into select counters to perk up their sagging NAVs, there was no active participation by other market participants. Stock specific action on the side counters continued as punters were seen fishing for value picks.

Technically, the markets will continue to remain lacklustre. The change in the rolling settlement cycle, from T+5 to T+3, from April 1 will again reduce volumes on the bourses temporarily, as market participants would have to arrange for funds or delivery quickly. The forthcoming Q4 results would impact the future course of markets, especially the frontline infotech stocks. Punters would wait for the declaration of these results before increasing their speculative positions in these sectoral stocks. Till then nervousness would prevail on the markets for these stocks and we could see subdued movement.

CMC

The consolidation phase for the CMC stock has ended. As we had indicated in our last issue, the stock has successfully moved above the Rs 415 level to touch an intra-day high of

Rs 449 on March 27 and on the lower side it has touched an intra-day low of Rs 371.10 on March 26. The rally in the stock has been due to the announcement by the management that profit margins will jump by 20 percent. The stock has also been buzzing on the rumours of a merger with TCS over the last couple of days. It seems unlikely that the Tatas would like to merge CMC with TCS while the government has a stake in the stock. With occasional bouts of correction, the stock is likely to continue with the upward rally, unless it falters in its Q4 results.

Digital Globalsoft

The ongoing volatility in the stock due to HP-Compaq merger has cooled down. The stock has moved in a narrow range of Rs 18.40, touching an intra-day high of Rs 562 on March 27 and an intra-day low of Rs 543.60 on March 26. The stock has been finding support at lower levels despite it emitting bearish signals, and the fall will gather momentum only if it falls below the Rs 523.80 level.

HCL Technologies

The stock continued to correct itself amidst lacklustre movement, moving in a range of Rs 14, touching an intra-day high of Rs 274 on March 26 and an intra-day low of Rs 260 on March 27. The market continues to be nervous about the stock due to the impending Q4 results, and the stock could continue its downward journey. The only saving grace for the stock has been that it has been falling on low volumes.

Infosys

The bellwether infotech stock was unable to sustain itself at the Rs 3,759 level and has fallen below this level. The stock has moved in a range of Rs 353.90, touching an intra-day high of Rs 4,000 on March 27 and an intra-day low of Rs 3,646.10 on March 26.

The markets are nervous before the declaration of its Q4 results to be declared by the company early next month. The weak sentiment will prevail on the stock till the results are announced and the same would not only decide its own fate but also of the other infotech stocks temporarily till their results are announced.

The stock will continue to slide further with occasional bouts of rallying till a positive signal emerges from the results or from the management.

Nasdaq
The benchmark index for tech stocks world over has been falling on earnings warnings by a few tech companies. The nervousness continues to prevail in the US markets over tech stocks and we could see it sliding further in the event that the quarterly results to be declared by US infotech companies are not in line with market expectations. The index continues to be below its 200-day moving average and could find support at the 1,715 level, till a clear-cut trend emerges.

STRATSTAR FUND WIZARD
BUY/SELL REPORT FOR 01/04/2002

Scrip

Current Signal

Last Signal

Date

Price

Indicator

Date

Price

Indicator

Open Position

Rise / Profit (%)

Stop Loss

Remark

Indices

BSE SENSEX

28/03/02

3472.52

26/03/02

3466.29

SELL

-6.23

3591.82

S&P CNX NIFTY

28/03/02

1129.55

27/12/01

1020

BUY

109.55

11.61

1142.52

®

NASDAQ

27/03/02

1826.75

18/01/02

1930.34

SELL

103.59

1829.7

Infotech Stocks

CMC

3/28/02

543.6

3/21/02

380.95

BUY

162.65

42.7

395.88

®®®®

DIGITAL EQUIP.

3/28/02

569.3

3/20/02

551.8

SELL

-17.5

563.09

DSQ SOFTWARE

3/28/02

41.85

3/19/02

45.05

SELL

3.2

44.48

HCL INFOSYSTEMS

3/28/02

120.25

2/14/02

109.35

BUY

10.9

114.26

HCL TECHNOLOGIES

3/28/02

253.65

3/26/02

265.5

SELL

11.85

267.66

HUGHES SOFTWARE

3/28/02

285

3/18/02

327.6

SELL

42.6

13

332.95

®

INFOSYS TECH.

3/28/02

3735.45

3/22/02

3830.75

SELL

95.3

3931.37

MASTEK

3/28/02

362.2

BUY

3/26/02

329.6

SELL

-32.6

347.95

NIIT

3/28/02

234.25

3/27/02

231.3

BUY

2.95

228.98

PENTAFOUR SOFTWARE

3/28/02

48.35

2/20/02

62.55

SELL

14.2

22.7

62.38

®®

POLARIS SOFTWARE

3/28/02

202.1

3/8/02

212.85

BUY

-10.75

195.23

PSI DATASYSTEMS

3/28/02

130.15

3/8/02

121.4

BUY

8.75

118.6

ROLTA

3/28/02

108.65

3/15/02

112.85

BUY

-4.2

106.25

SATYAM COMPUTERS

3/28/02

267.65

3/26/02

260.95

SELL

-6.7

278.17

SILVERLINE INDUSTRIE

3/28/02

52.95

3/26/02

52.3

SELL

-0.65

54.23

SONATA SOFTWARE

3/28/02

16.6

3/8/02

15.6

BUY

1

14.16

SSI

3/28/02

178.55

2/28/02

184.3

SELL

5.75

190.1

TATA ELXSI

3/28/02

76.85

3/27/02

76.5

BUY

0.35

76.39

WIPRO

3/28/02

1701.6

3/26/02

1662.8

SELL

-38.8

1708.42

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