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18th March 2002

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Is Unix on the way down?

Unix server sales have been down globally, and India is no exception. According to analysts, the Indian Unix server market stood at $175 million in 2000. Experts estimate that the Unix server market in India stood between $115 to $120 million in 2001-02. “Software development houses that push the mid-range server market did not get enough new projects to get going and we have seen a drop by 18 percent. Sales in SME and the manufacturing segment that influence the low-end server market dropped by 35 percent. The other factor inhibiting growth was the consolidation of ISPs and data centres,” says Kamal Dutta, country business manager, Unix Server & Solutions, Hewlett-Packard India.

Sun: Leader of the pack

Raman says HP’s innovations in the Intel space has seen it firmly entrenched in the financial sector

Sun Microsystems has traditionally dominated this space and it continues to do so. The company claims a 35 to 40 percent share of the Unix server market in India.

Strengths: Sun has traditionally done a remarkable job of communicating its unified architecture of Solaris-Sparc. This combination has offered customers a truly scalable platform going from one to 106 CPUs without having to rewrite applications to take advantage of the greater power.

Sun’s enterprise offerings include the 2800 and 880 servers based on the Ultra Sparc III. The 880 with 8 processors, hot plug memory and CPU starts at Rs 10 lakh.

Sun’s top of the line model is the Sun Fire 15000 with 72 to 106 CPUs, costing anything between $1 million and $15 million. Two of them have already been installed in the two weeks since its India launch.

The company has a strong distribution set up. This year Sun appointed HCL as a distributor. The alliance is expected to take Sun to smaller cities such as Jaipur and Lucknow. “HCL has a reach in government and PSUs that will complement our existing distribution set up,” says K P Unnikrishnan, country head-marketing, Sun Microsystems India.

Weaknesses: Sun’s biggest strength, its unified architecture, is also in many ways its Achilles heel. Sun is the only major without a strong second or third line of servers. This is particularly notable in the entry-level or SME space where the company acquired Cobalt to make up for this inadequacy. Of late, there have been signs that Sun is finally waking up to the fact that it has to embrace Linux, at least at the low-end, in order to beat back Dell and the rest of the Wintel crowd.

Opportunities: If Sun executes McNealy’s announcements of coming out with its own Linux distribution and a series of low-end x86 servers running Linux, it could give the Wintel crowd a run for their money.

UNNIkrishnan says HCL’s reach in the government sector will further push up Sun’s dominance in the Unix space

Threats: Wintel servers are getting more powerful and Intel’s Xeon roadmap is finally getting it into the enterprise. With commodity Intel servers coming on strong, Sun India will need to emulate its parent in the US, and aggressively market Cobalt and other low end servers running Linux. Abroad, Sun just announced a program to migrate folks using Intel-based servers running Windows NT to its Linux-based Cobalt RaQ or Qube server appliances. The company sold 100,000 Cobalt servers last year. Sun India doesn’t seem to be pushing Cobalt very hard but they will have to if they are to counter Wintel at the low end.

IBM: The phoenix rises

Strengths: IBM has seen a strong resurgence in its Unix server line, the pSeries. “Our biggest area was the pSeries,” says Ganesh. According to Gartner, “the decline of zSeries and iSeries revenue will continue; however, IBM’s aggressive focus on Unix is paying off, and starting in 2001, pSeries gains will more than make up for the decline in the other two server systems.”

IBM has been very aggressive in the Unix market with its pSeries. “You can cluster up to 640 CPUs and run a thousand instances of Linux on the pSeries,” says Ganesh.

Weaknesses: 2001-02 saw a slowdown in the mainframe business due to the software downturn. IBM has moved to introduce a new low cost entry-level mainframe called the Raptor. With this model, the cost-of-entry into zSeries has dropped from $750,000 to about $250,000. This combined with Linux on Raptor could squeeze high end Unix boxes from rivals.

Opportunities: Server consolidation is the trend cited by IBM. No one is better placed than Big Blue with its three mid to high-end server lines—the pSeries (Unix), iSeries (AS/400) and zSeries (mainframes).

Threats: Sun has raised the performance bar with its Sun Fire 15000 and is moving its servers into the kind of performance traditionally only available on IBM mainframes. IBM has countered with Regatta, and more recently Raptor.

HP: The comeback kid

Internal sources at IDC list HP with a 23 percent market share in Q4 2001. “We have increased our market share 3 percent over last year,” says Kamal.

Strengths: HP has a strong line of Unix servers topping out at the Superdome that sells for half a million to a million US dollars. The company will move to Itanium over time but for now it continues to sell PA-RISC machines. HP believes that Itanium will ramp up in 2002-03, so for now it is concentrating on its PA-RISC boxes. HP has a very strong channel presence with 40 percent of its Unix servers going through this high margin route. It plans to increase that to 50 percent.

In technology, HP has come out with a range of blade servers running Linux, with HP-UX and Windows NT blades coming in H1 2002.

Weaknesses: Despite having a good line up of servers, HP has never focused on a market niche the way Compaq has on Intel or Sun on Unix. This has prevented the company from being the leader in either segment.

Opportunities: HP’s fortunes in the high-end space are closely linked to Itanium in the long run. If that chip takes off, the sky is the limit for HP, which has shown a greater focus on Itanium than any other vendor.

Threats: Phasing out a successful line of processors can be tricky. Customers will be confused by the move to Itanium, though HP is doing its best to smoothen the transition.

Compaq: Alpha and Himalaya, the one-two punch

Strengths: In the Unix space Compaq is second to Sun with 25 percent. Compaq’s acquisition of Digital gave it the Alpha line of Unix servers. Its Tandem buy got it Himalaya. Both these lines have continued to do well with wins such as the company’s implementation of an ATM network for Punjab National Bank using the NonStop Himalaya Server to offer ATM banking and other online banking facilities. Similarly, the Alpha range was used to provide a disaster recovery solution to Global Trust Bank (GTB) at GTB’s disaster recovery site in Mumbai. Compaq’s high-end servers have done well in telecom, banking and finance, manufacturing and high performance transaction computing.

Weaknesses: Alpha is a great platform but with Compaq moving to Itanium, Alpha’s days are numbered. Compaq, as with HP, finds itself having to convince customers that they should move to IA-64.

Opportunities: A lot depends upon how the merger goes. If things work out, the new entity should hold the trumps in the Unix space with a combined share of close to 50 percent.

Threats: The competition won sit still while Compaq (or the merged HP-Compaq entity) migrates its customers to IA-64. Both IBM and Sun have strong 64-bit lines that have been around for donkey’s years and have proved themselves in the real world. They will move in for the kill.

And in the end

HP’s Dutta says they are expecting a big market for blade servers in India

With IDC predicting a growth of 8 percent for 2002-03, the server market can only go up. That said, it looks like being a gradual recovery. It’s always difficult to gaze into the crystal ball and predict the future but its safe to say that the Intel market has a good chance of beating the RISC market in revenues in the coming year. Itanium will most probably be a no-show in 2002-03 too. Xeon will continue to do well. Hammer is a question mark. It could see AMD entering the server segment in a significant manner for the first time.

In the high-end space, Sun, IBM, HP and Compaq will continue to duke it out. If everything goes as planned by Carly Fiorina, the combine of HP and Compaq could give Big Blue and Sun a run for their money, possibly even overtake both as the top server vendor in both the Intel and Unix segment. All in all, it’s going to be an interesting year for the server market. The year that was has laid the ground for server consolidation with blades taking rack density to new heights. Now, it remains to be seen if corporates will go in for centralised set ups with hundreds of rack servers consolidating their existing hardware or if they will prefer to go in for Raptors, Sun Fires and the like.

India Inc shies away from Linux on the server

IDC data reveals that 42 per cent of Linux systems are running as Web servers and 24 per cent as Web infrastructure platforms. Only about 10 per cent of Linux systems are running enterprise class applications such as commercial databases. In reality, Linux has seen many takers in the Indian ISP and ASP markets, especially in the B and C category ISPs. The reason being flexibility, scalability and low cost of maintenance.

Today, most Indian enterprises are using Linux as an add on to the existing platforms. Although companies like Oracle and IBM expect an increase in corporate interest for Linux deployment, it is still being used as a departmental and file or print server rather than as a mission critical database server.

Globally, Linux market share is growing at a steady pace. IDC states in its Server Operating Environments Market Forecast and Analysis, 2000-2004 that “Linux remains the fastest-growing server operating system, with the worldwide installed base of Linux growing at a 35 percent compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) between 1999-2004. Linux has 27 percent market share in 2000, up from 25 percent the previous year.”

A new Merrill Lynch survey of 50 US and 15 European CIOs reports that some 50 percent of those surveyed see Linux “as a threat” to Solaris and 38 percent regard Linux as a threat to Windows NT in the next three years. IDC Research reveals a 45-80 percent lower total cost of ownership (TCO) for Linux on the Intel architecture over RISC/Unix environments.

Customer interest in Linux is primarily driven by its ability to slash costs through the consolidation of Solaris and NT workloads (particularly Web serving, file and print and messaging) onto Linux servers.

“Migration to Linux is happening in three areas,” says Sachin Dabir, head-enterprise sales, Red Hat India. “Linux is being used as a database server; secondly it is popular as a mail or proxy server and lastly is used for file and print services and as a desktop.” Red Hat is the largest open source company in the world with a market share of 65 percent of all worldwide Linux server software, and the last one year has seen the company establish a presence in India.

The Indian government is a major user of Linux too. NIC uses Red Hat Linux. Other users include Breach Candy hospital, Hughes Escorts, Siemens and Philips’ R&D centres in Bangalore. We have 70 to 80 large customers in India.

Red Hat has officially shipped over 2,000 copies of RHL in India. Dabir estimates that these would have been used to install RHL on over 15,000 servers since there is no restriction on how many machines a copy of Linux can be installed upon. On an average, one copy ends up on at least five to ten servers.

Education is a hot segment for Linux on the server. “We have a lot of enquiries at the state level,” says Dabir. He added that tenders are starting to include Linux. In some cases they specify only Linux or Unix.

Red Hat India is also looking at partnering with Indian Institutes of Technology (IITs). The tie up with IITs will be for working with IIT students and helping them to develop proficiency in various Linux applications and technologies. Red Hat India will also work closely with various Indian software developers working on Linux to provide them necessary technology hand-holding.

The Indian market presents an interesting picture for Red Hat Linux. While in the US Linux commands close to a significant market share on the server side, the Indian enterprise segment still seems apprehensive about using Linux. One reason could be the lack of organised support till very recently, a crucial factor for enterprises. Another bottleneck is the stronghold of NetWare and Windows NT/2000 in the Indian server market. If Red Hat has to make a dent into the market share of Novell and Microsoft, it will have to gain mind share first.

The blades are here

A relatively new technology has emerged in the server arena. Blade servers let you pack 280 servers on a single rack. These are comprehensive servers that include processor, memory, network connections, and associated electronics, all on a single motherboard called a blade. This technology addresses the current trend among large computing centres to reduce space requirement, power, maintenance and reliability, while lowering their total cost of ownership. Enterprises can also expect a higher return on their IT investments. “We are expecting a big market for these products in India,” says Kamal Dutta, country business manager, Unix Server & Solutions, HP India.

Gartner Dataquest forecasts worldwide blade server shipments will increase dramatically, growing from the 84,810 units it expects will ship in 2002, to more than 1 million in 2006. It also anticipates that revenue from blades will reach at least $1.2 billion during this time.

The server blade, along with storage, networking and other blades, are typically installed in a rack-mountable enclosure that houses multiple blades and common resources such as cabling, power supplies, and cooling fans, which leads to big savings. With its modular, hot-pluggable architecture, the easily accessible blade server offers increased computing density, while ensuring both maximum scalability and ease of management.

With major hardware vendors now jumping on the server blade bandwagon, blades could mean big business. Hewlett-Packard was the first vendor to offer this product. Recently, the company announced OpenBlade, an open specification for blade servers designed to drive the development of standards-based blade server architectures and in turn provide enterprises with interoperable, multi-vendor blade server solutions.

HP’s blade server products will initially run on the Linux operating system distributions of Red Hat, Debian and SuSE. Because Linux is very lightweight, has lower memory requirements and makes better use of CPU power, it is an ideal operating system for blade servers, which require flexibility and scalability in highly constrained environments due to heat restrictions. HP-UX and Microsoft Windows are expected to be available on blade servers in the first half of 2002.

The HP blade server chassis, server blade, storage blade, network blade and management blade are currently available. Pricing starts at $1,925 for a single server blade, or $7,525 for an HP blade server chassis with one management blade. Blade servers are best suited for ISPs, IDCs and enterprises.

Joining the bandwagon is Compaq India which recently announced the availability of Compaq ProLiant BL e-Class Server in India. The server blade architecture is designed for the enterprise and will enable customers to pack 280 servers into a standard 42U rack. These blade servers will address the needs of space-constrained enterprises and service providers for increased server density, rapid deployment and provisioning, and remote manageability.

“The blade server is optimised to provide flexibility to increase the number of servers without compromising on performance or being constrained by space, operating in a multi-tier environment. This enables the enterprise to quickly respond to changing business needs through dynamic resource scaling and virtual presence and control,” says Pallab Talukdar, director, Enterprise Products, Enterprise Business Group, Compaq India.

ProLiant BL10e is based on Intel Pentium III 700 MHz processor architecture. Customers can deploy twenty blade servers in a 3U enclosure, enabling up to 280 blades in a 42U rack. Compaq’s blade servers are available for shipment and is has priced at Rs 2 lakh plus taxes, and the enclosure at Rs 5 lakh plus taxes, and works both on Windows 2000 and Linux.

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